MLB Recap · August 27, 2023

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

CHC10
Final
PIT1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CHC10023001310120
PIT100000000140

The Story

The Chicago Cubs handed the Pittsburgh Pirates a lopsided 10-1 defeat at PNC Park on August 27, 2023, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win falling from 45% before the first pitch to 0% by the final out. Chicago scattered 12 hits without committing an error, while Pittsburgh managed just four hits against a Cubs pitching staff led by Javier Assad.

The game turned decisively in the fourth inning when Jeimer Candelario launched a home run off Bailey Falter, a swing that shifted win probability 21.5 points in Chicago's favor and effectively removed Pittsburgh from contention. The Pirates briefly responded in the bottom half, as Joshua Palacios singled off Assad to nudge Pittsburgh's chances by 4.7 points, but Connor Joe's pop out two batters later erased that momentum, costing the Pirates 4.2 points of win probability and allowing Assad to strand the threat. Chicago then buried the game in the fifth, with Cody Bellinger delivering a double off Falter that moved the needle another 15.9 points toward the Cubs, followed by a Seiya Suzuki double off Cody Bolton that added 5.3 more. Three additional Cubs runs in the ninth put the final margin at nine.

Among individual performers, Candelario finished as the game's most impactful batter by WPA at plus 20.5 points with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Bellinger contributed plus 13.2 points of win probability and led all position players with a RE24 of plus 3.8. Suzuki added plus 8.5 WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.9. On the mound, Assad was the clear standout, posting plus 18.0 WPA as he kept Pittsburgh's lineup largely quiet and gave the Cubs a performance worth carrying into the later innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CHC bats firstFinalPIT win %CHC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jeimer Candelario Home Run
Top 4th · off Bailey Falter
+21.5%
Cody Bellinger Double
Top 5th · off Bailey Falter
+15.9%
Seiya Suzuki Double
Top 5th · off Cody Bolton
+5.3%
Joshua Palacios Single
Bot 4th · off Javier Assad
+4.7%
Connor Joe Pop Out
Bot 4th · off Javier Assad
-4.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Jeimer Candelario+20.5%+1.7 RE24
Cody Bellinger+13.2%+3.8 RE24
Seiya Suzuki+8.5%+1.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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