St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 3 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies shut out the St. Louis Cardinals 3-0 on August 27, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, holding St. Louis to just two hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Philadelphia as a 66% favorite and moved to 100% certainty by the final out, a trajectory built almost entirely on dominant pitching and a handful of timely offensive moments.
The game's most consequential sequence came in the ninth inning, where Cardinals hitters had their best opportunity to chip into the deficit but came up empty. Paul Goldschmidt opened the frame with a double off Craig Kimbrel, a play that shifted win probability by plus 6.9 percentage points in St. Louis's favor and briefly represented the game's last realistic threat. But Nolan Arenado followed with a pop out that swung probability back toward Philadelphia by 5.8 points, and Willson Contreras's strikeout cost the Cardinals another 4.2 points, effectively ending any remaining hope. Earlier, Johan Rojas delivered the game's second most impactful offensive play with a double off Drew Rom in the fifth inning, a plus 6.1 percentage point swing that pushed Philadelphia's lead to two runs. Bryce Harper's seventh-inning single off John King added another plus 7.4 points and accounted for the game's single largest win-probability swing at the plate.
Aaron Nola was the clear standout performer overall, generating plus 30.6 percentage points of win probability across his outing to lead all players in that metric by a wide margin. Nola held St. Louis to its meager two-hit total and was the primary reason the DiamondIQ model's estimate climbed so steadily toward certainty. Rojas finished as the top offensive contributor with plus 8.7 percentage points of WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Harper added plus 5.0 WPA on his own. Drew Rom earned plus 8.5 WPA in a losing effort, limiting further Philadelphia damage after entering in relief, though the Cardinals' offense gave him little support.