Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | 6 | 6 | 2 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers edged the Chicago Cubs 6-5 on July 6, 2023, at American Family Field in a back-and-forth contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win climb from 61 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by the final out. The Brewers struck the decisive blow in the bottom of the fifth, when Christian Yelich launched a home run off Marcus Stroman that swung win probability 31.3 points in Milwaukee's favor, the single largest swing of the game. The Cubs answered with a two-run sixth on a Cody Bellinger home run off Freddy Peralta that added 17.5 points to Chicago's win probability and kept the game competitive into the late innings.
The eighth inning proved to be the contest's most turbulent stretch. Yan Gomes gave the Cubs new life with a home run off J.C. Mejia that shifted win probability 29.6 points toward Chicago, pulling the visitors within striking distance. Victor Caratini responded immediately in the bottom half, taking a Michael Fulmer pitch deep for a home run worth 21.4 points of win probability for Milwaukee, effectively neutralizing the Cubs' momentum. A Christopher Morel groundout into a double play in that same eighth inning cost Chicago 13.8 points of win probability and proved to be the rally-killer that sealed the outcome.
Among individual performers, Gomes finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-34.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4 despite his team ultimately falling short, while Yelich posted plus-28.1 percent WPA and a matching RE24 of plus-2.4 to anchor the Brewers' offense. Bellinger led all Cubs batters with plus-25.2 percent WPA and the game's highest RE24 among position players at plus-2.6. On the mound, Joel Payamps was the most impactful Brewers reliever at plus-15.2 percent WPA, with Elvis Peguero and Daniel Palencia also contributing positive contributions out of the bullpen as Milwaukee held on for the one-run victory.