Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-6 on July 5, 2023, at Dodger Stadium, finishing what the DiamondIQ model's estimate had projected as a 63 percent pregame home favorite and closing that probability out at 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the bottom of the fifth inning when J.D. Martinez connected on a home run off Roansy Contreras, a swing that added 29.9 percent to Los Angeles's win probability and served as the single most impactful play of the contest. Pittsburgh had briefly seized momentum in the top of the fourth when Jack Suwinski launched a home run off Bobby Miller, a hit that shifted the Pirates' win probability upward by 14.3 percent and gave them a lead they could not ultimately sustain after the Dodgers scored four runs in the bottom of the fifth.
Pittsburgh mounted a late effort in the top of the ninth, where Bryan Reynolds drew a walk off Daniel Hudson that nudged the Pirates' chances up by 13.6 percent, though those hopes were extinguished when Carlos Santana recorded a flyout in that same inning at a cost of 12.8 percent in win probability. Santana had also grounded Pittsburgh's prospects with a pop out in the seventh off Ryan Brasier, which cost the Pirates 12.2 percent. Brasier was the most impactful pitcher on either side, finishing with a WPA of plus-32.8 percent, while Osvaldo Bido contributed plus-10.2 percent and Caleb Ferguson added plus-8.1 percent in support of the Dodgers' bullpen effort.
Among position players, Martinez led all batters with a WPA of plus-32.2 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.4, anchoring the Dodger offensive contribution. Andrew McCutchen posted a WPA of plus-15.7 percent with an RE24 of plus-0.6, and David Peralta added plus-15.5 percent with an RE24 of plus-1.2. Los Angeles finished the night with six runs on six hits and no errors, while Pittsburgh stranded enough baserunners to leave its nine-hit output without the necessary conversions to overcome the Dodgers' decisive fifth-inning burst.