Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies erased a pre-game deficit in the DiamondIQ model's estimate and pulled away for an 8-4 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on July 5, 2023, collecting 17 hits against a Tampa Bay pitching staff that could not contain Philadelphia's lineup through the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with the Rays as 64-percent favorites at home, but that probability collapsed to zero by the final out as the Phillies built their advantage incrementally before breaking the game open in the fifth through seventh innings.

The decisive stretch began in the top of the fifth, where Trea Turner connected on a home run off Yonny Chirinos that shifted win probability by plus-12.3 percent, and a Bryson Stott single in the same frame added another plus-11.5 percent swing, also against Chirinos. Nick Castellanos extended the lead in the sixth with a home run off Robert Stephenson, the single biggest offensive play of the game at plus-13.5 percent win probability added. Brandon Marsh then delivered a single off Luis Patiño in the seventh that registered plus-15.3 percent, effectively sealing Tampa Bay's fate. The Rays' best chance to claw back came in the bottom of the sixth when Manuel Margot grounded into a double play off Taijuan Walker, a swing of minus-11.8 percent that extinguished a potential rally.

By the DiamondIQ model's individual accounting, Bryson Stott led all position players with plus-17.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Trea Turner posted plus-14.6 percent WPA. Brandon Lowe was the Rays' most impactful bat at plus-12.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.2, though his contributions were ultimately insufficient. On the mound, Taijuan Walker led all pitchers with plus-8.4 percent WPA, with Jake Diekman contributing plus-7.2 percent in relief as the Phillies' staff held Tampa Bay to four runs on seven hits across nine innings.