Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles handed the New York Yankees a 6-3 defeat at Yankee Stadium on July 5, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening the game at a dead-even 50 percent home win probability before closing at zero. The game remained scoreless through four innings before New York broke through in the fifth on a Josh Donaldson home run off Dean Kremer, a swing that added 12.4 percent to the Yankees' win probability and gave the home side its earliest advantage. Baltimore answered with a decisive sixth inning that effectively decided the contest, beginning with Jordan Westburg's triple off Michael King, the single play with the largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 28.1 percent. Adam Frazier followed with a fielder's choice that added another 15.0 percent, and the Orioles plated four runs in the frame to take a 4-2 lead they would not relinquish.

Baltimore added two more in the ninth to push the final margin to three, and while Anthony Volpe's eighth-inning home run off Yennier Cano injected 18.8 percent back into the Yankees' outlook, Giancarlo Stanton's lineout against Félix Bautista in the same frame immediately swung the model 16.5 percent in Baltimore's favor and effectively ended New York's last credible threat. Among position players, Westburg finished as the game's top contributor at plus 25.5 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24, while Frazier added plus 15.4 percent WPA and Volpe led the Yankees at plus 14.8 percent. On the mound, Randy Vásquez led all pitchers with plus 22.1 percent WPA, supported by Bautista at plus 13.3 percent and Kremer at plus 12.6 percent despite surrendering the Donaldson homer. The Orioles finished with ten hits against New York's six, each team committing one error across the nine innings.