St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 1 |
| MIA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-9 on July 5, 2023, at loanDepot park in a game that swung dramatically in its final two half-innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 70 percent chance of winning before first pitch, but the Cardinals nearly erased that advantage entirely in the top of the ninth when Jordan Walker hit a home run off A.J. Puk, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-74.1 percent in St. Louis's favor and briefly turned what had been a Miami lead into a Cardinals advantage. That blow capped a Cardinals rally that also included a five-run third inning featuring Nolan Gorman's home run off Bryan Hoeing, a play worth plus-20.2 percent in win probability.
Miami answered immediately in the bottom of the ninth against Jordan Hicks, erasing Walker's dramatic shot with a two-run frame that ended the game. The decisive moment came on Joey Wendle's fielder's choice, which carried a win-probability swing of plus-71.5 percent for the Marlins and restored the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent in Miami's favor. Bryan De La Cruz played a critical supporting role in that rally, drawing a walk off Hicks worth plus-12.3 percent after having contributed a double off Steven Matz in the sixth inning that added plus-15.6 percent earlier in the game.
Among individual performers, Wendle finished as the game's top contributor by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting plus-71.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.0 alongside De La Cruz, who matched that RE24 figure while accumulating plus-32.0 percent WPA across his contributions. Walker led all Cardinals batters with plus-67.0 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, his ninth-inning home run representing one of the largest single-play probability swings of the game despite ultimately coming on the losing side. In relief, Tanner Scott led Miami's pitching staff with plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Steven Okert at plus-7.1 percent and JT Chargois at plus-6.3 percent.