Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Los Angeles Angels 5-3 at Petco Park on July 5, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model opened as a virtual coin flip at 51 percent in favor of the home side before closing at 100 percent. San Diego built its margin through a series of contributions from Manny Machado, whose three separate plate appearances drove the largest cumulative swing in win probability of any player on either side.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Machado connected on a home run off José Soriano for a swing of plus-13.8 percent win probability. That blow was bookended by a single off Patrick Sandoval in the third, worth plus-9.5 percent, and a walk against Chris Devenski in the eighth that added another plus-10.6 percent. Machado finished the night as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, accumulating plus-40.4 percent total WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.0. The Angels' most consequential moment came in the top of the seventh, when Matt Thaiss lifted a home run off Nick Martinez for the largest single-play swing of the game at plus-15.6 percent win probability, briefly tightening the contest before San Diego closed it out. Jo Adell's double off Seth Lugo in the third, worth plus-10.2 percent, had given Los Angeles an early foothold that ultimately proved insufficient.

On the mound, Seth Lugo led San Diego's pitching staff with plus-13.2 percent WPA, while Tom Cosgrove contributed plus-10.8 percent in relief. Patrick Sandoval paced the Angels' pitchers at plus-6.3 percent despite allowing Machado's third-inning single. The final line showed Los Angeles with six hits and one error against San Diego's five hits and one error, a testament to how efficiently Machado and the Padres converted their opportunities into a result the DiamondIQ model ultimately assigned near-certain probability by game's end.