Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 8-4 on July 4, 2023 at Yankee Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a New York win climbing from a modest 51 percent pre-game to a certainty of 100 percent by the final out. Baltimore drew first blood in the fifth inning when Adam Frazier connected on a home run off Clarke Schmidt, a swing that shifted win probability 18.5 percent in the Orioles' favor and represented the most consequential single moment of the game from Baltimore's perspective. New York answered in the bottom half, with a Giancarlo Stanton single off Kyle Gibson carrying an 11.8 percent win-probability boost as the Yankees began clawing back into the game. The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh, when Jose Trevino launched a home run off Nick Vespi worth 13.1 percent in win probability, part of a three-run frame that also saw Harrison Bader deliver a double off Bryan Baker that added another 11.5 percent. Baltimore's best opportunity to keep pace dissolved in the top of the sixth, when Jordan Westburg flew out against Ron Marinaccio in a spot that cost the Orioles 11.5 percent in win probability.

On the strength of their seventh-inning surge, the Yankees finished with eight runs on seven hits, matching Baltimore's hit total but pulling away through timely execution. Trevino led all position players with a combined WPA of plus-21.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Bader posted the best RE24 among batters at plus-1.6 to go with his plus-11.9 percent WPA. Frazier was the lone Oriole to register a positive WPA line at plus-16.0 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly New York controlled the game outside of that fifth-inning sequence. On the mound, Ron Marinaccio was the most valuable arm in terms of win probability added, contributing plus-12.8 percent, followed by Wandy Peralta at plus-8.5 percent, as New York's bullpen locked down Baltimore over the final innings to complete the Independence Day victory.