New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets overcame a home-field advantage that the DiamondIQ model had pegged at 66 percent entering play, defeating the Arizona Diamondbacks 8-5 at Chase Field on July 4, 2023. New York finished with eight runs on eight hits and committed no errors, while Arizona matched the hit total but could not overcome the damage done in key innings. The Mets seized control in the fourth, then added insurance in the fifth and seventh to put the game firmly out of reach.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the fourth when Starling Marte connected on a home run off Zach Davies, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability by 29.8 percentage points in New York's favor and represented the single largest play of the game. Arizona responded in the bottom half, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hitting a home run off Max Scherzer worth a 12.3-point swing for the home side, trimming the deficit temporarily. The Mets answered in the fifth on a Brandon Nimmo home run off Davies worth 13.0 points, while Corbin Carroll's walk off Scherzer in the bottom of the inning provided Arizona its best remaining leverage moment at plus 14.7 points. Francisco Alvarez then delivered the knockout blow in the seventh, a home run off Miguel Castro that added 26.7 percentage points to New York's win probability and effectively closed the door on any Diamondbacks rally.
Marte led all players by WPA at plus 30.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 3.2, and Alvarez finished at plus 20.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, making the two catchers and corner bats the clear engines of the Mets offense. Carroll paced Arizona with plus 8.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.7, though his contributions were not enough to overcome the bullpen's struggles. On the mound, Brooks Raley led New York's relief corps at plus 8.8 percent WPA, followed by Adam Ottavino at plus 5.2 percent, as the Mets' late-inning arms preserved what the lineup had built. The DiamondIQ model's final estimate settled at zero percent for the Diamondbacks, a complete reversal from where the evening began.