MLB Recap · July 4, 2023

Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

SEA6
Final
SF0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA1110010206130
SF000000000051

The Story

The Seattle Mariners completed a dominant 6-0 shutout of the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on July 4, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in stark terms: San Francisco entered with a 57% pre-game win probability and finished at 0%. Seattle spread 13 hits across the game with no errors, while Giants starter Keaton Winn struggled to contain the Mariners offense through the early innings.

The decisive moment came in the top of the third, when Mike Ford connected on a home run off Winn that shifted win probability by 9.2 percentage points in Seattle's favor. The Giants had opportunities to stem the tide early, most notably when Blake Sabol's flyout in the bottom of the second represented a 7.7-point swing against San Francisco, and Michael Conforto's groundout to open the bottom of the first cost the Giants 4.8 points of win probability against Logan Gilbert. Julio Rodríguez added a key single off Sean Manaea in the sixth for a 6.7-point swing, and Eugenio Suárez's double off Winn in the second contributed an additional 4.4 points. Seattle tacked on two more runs in the eighth to finalize the margin.

Logan Gilbert was the story on the mound, posting a staggering plus-39.6% WPA to lead all players in the game by a wide margin, methodically retiring a Giants lineup that managed only five hits. Ford led Seattle's offensive contributors with a combined plus-13.4% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Rodríguez finished at plus-8.8% WPA. San Francisco's relievers Sean Manaea and Jakob Junis both posted negative WPA figures, reflecting a bullpen that could not slow Seattle's sustained pressure across nine innings.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalSF win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 57.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Mike Ford Home Run
Top 3rd · off Keaton Winn
+9.2%
Blake Sabol Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Logan Gilbert
-7.7%
Julio Rodríguez Single
Top 6th · off Sean Manaea
+6.7%
Michael Conforto Groundout
Bot 1st · off Logan Gilbert
-4.8%
Eugenio Suárez Double
Top 2nd · off Keaton Winn
+4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Mike Ford+13.4%+1.7 RE24
Julio Rodríguez+8.8%+0.6 RE24
Eugenio Suárez+2.3%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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