Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays held on to defeat the Chicago White Sox 4-3 at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 4, 2023, completing a comeback that hinged on a pair of crucial home runs and a dominant closing sequence. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Chicago holding a 43 percent win probability, but that number fell to zero by the final out.
The game's most consequential sequence began in the bottom of the sixth, when Luis Robert Jr. connected on a home run off Chris Bassitt that shifted win probability by 37.6 percent in Chicago's favor, erasing a 2-0 Toronto lead that Whit Merrifield had helped build with an RBI double off Lucas Giolito in the fourth. That swing gave Chicago a 3-2 advantage and represented the high-water mark of the White Sox night. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. answered in the top of the eighth, launching a home run off Joe Kelly that moved Toronto's win probability by 29.4 percent and put the Blue Jays back in front 4-3. Eloy Jiménez had a chance to respond in the bottom half but was retired on a flyout by Erik Swanson, a sequence that cost Chicago 19.9 percent in win probability and effectively shifted control of the game.
Jordan Romano closed things out in the ninth, most notably striking out Jake Burger to end the threat, a moment that added 31.6 percent to Toronto's win probability and sealed the result. By WPA, Guerrero Jr. finished as the top offensive contributor at plus-29.6 percent, while Robert Jr. posted a game-high RE24 of plus-1.8. On the pitching side, Swanson led all pitchers with plus-23.3 percent WPA, his dominant eighth-inning work proving decisive in preserving the one-run lead.