Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Oakland Athletics handed the Detroit Tigers a 1-0 defeat in ten innings at Comerica Park on July 4, 2023, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave Detroit a 71 percent chance of winning at home. Oakland managed just two hits on the night, but the lone run they produced was enough, as a pitching duel held both offenses scoreless through nine frames before the Athletics struck in the top of the tenth.

The decisive sequence unfolded entirely in extra innings. With the automatic runner on second to begin the tenth, Jace Peterson laid down a sacrifice bunt off Tyler Holton that shifted the win probability by 16.4 percentage points in Oakland's favor, moving the inherited runner into scoring position. Ryan Noda then delivered the game's most consequential hit, a single off Holton that pushed Oakland ahead 1-0 and swung win probability by 28.5 points. Shea Langeliers struck out to briefly pull that probability back by 18.0 points, but JJ Bleday grounded out to advance the runner and added 21.1 points of win probability in doing so. In the bottom of the tenth, Trevor May retired Spencer Torkelson on a flyout that, by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, represented a 27.0-point swing sealing Oakland's victory.

On the mound, JP Sears led all players with a WPA of plus 47.3 percent, and Reese Olson was nearly as dominant at plus 45.8 percent, with the two starters combining to neutralize a Tigers lineup that collected six hits but never converted them into runs. Lucas Erceg added 11.3 points of win probability out of the bullpen to close it out. At the plate, Noda finished as the top offensive contributor at plus 31.3 WPA and plus 0.8 RE24, while Miguel Cabrera posted plus 17.6 WPA and Bleday contributed plus 16.4 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.4, a reflection of how tightly the game's leverage compressed every at-bat in the late innings.