Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-2 on July 3, 2023 at Dodger Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming from the outset, as it opened with a 63% home win probability that climbed to 100% by game's end. The Dodgers built their advantage incrementally, scoring in the second, fourth, and fifth innings while the Pirates managed just single runs in the second and sixth. The decisive swings came at the hands of the Dodgers offense working against Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller, who was touched repeatedly across the middle innings.

The biggest individual play of the game, by win-probability impact, was Miguel Rojas's double in the bottom of the fourth off Keller, which shifted the win probability 11.5 percentage points in Los Angeles's favor. Max Muncy had added a home run in the second inning, also off Keller, for a plus-7.7% swing, and David Peralta's single in the fifth off Keller contributed another plus-7.3% shift. On the Pittsburgh side, the most damaging moment came in the top of the third, when Carlos Santana grounded into a double play off Michael Grove, a play that cost the Pirates 11.4 percentage points of win probability. Jared Triolo's walk in the sixth off Ryan Brasier represented the Pirates' best individual moment at plus-8.6%, though it ultimately came too late to threaten seriously.

Among the game's standout performers by DiamondIQ metrics, Rojas led all batters with plus-12.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Jason Heyward contributed plus-10.4% WPA and the game's top RE24 mark of plus-1.6. Jack Suwinski paced Pittsburgh's individual contributors at plus-8.1% WPA despite the loss. The Dodgers bullpen was equally effective, with Caleb Ferguson, Brusdar Graterol, and Daniel Hudson posting WPA figures of plus-5.9%, plus-5.0%, and plus-4.5% respectively, collectively sealing Pittsburgh's fate across the game's final frames.