Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - | 6 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Yankees defeated the Baltimore Orioles 6-3 at Yankee Stadium on July 3, 2023, in a game that swung decisively in the home team's favor across the middle and late innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with an even 50 percent home win probability, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as New York steadily erased a two-run Baltimore deficit and pulled away for a comfortable final margin.
Baltimore staked an early claim in the game, plating runs in the second and third innings. The third-inning rally was anchored by Adley Rutschman, whose double off Domingo Germán added 11.1 percent to Baltimore's win probability and was good for the best single-play swing of the game from an Orioles perspective, finishing as the third-highest WPA play of the night overall. The Yankees began answering in the fifth, when Kyle Higashioka lifted a home run off Tyler Wells that added 12.3 percent to New York's win probability, followed shortly by an Anthony Volpe home run off the same pitcher worth another 9.8 percent. Those two swings off Wells erased the lead and shifted momentum firmly toward the home side. A DJ LeMahieu fielders choice out in the seventh off Yennier Cano represented the biggest negative swing of the night at minus 14.6 percent, briefly stalling New York, but Harrison Bader answered emphatically in the eighth with a home run off Danny Coulombe that moved the needle 25.8 percent, the single largest win-probability swing of the game and effectively the decisive blow.
On the individual leaderboard, Higashioka finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 20.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Bader posted plus 19.8 percent and led all hitters with a RE24 of plus 2.1. Rutschman was the lone bright spot for Baltimore, generating plus 14.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3. Among pitchers, Nick Ramirez led New York's bullpen with plus 12.6 percent WPA, followed by Tommy Kahnle at plus 10.6 percent, while starter Tyler Wells contributed plus 9.5 percent despite allowing both the Higashioka and Volpe home runs. Baltimore finished with 12 hits to New York's 11 but could not capitalize on that edge, leaving the DiamondIQ model's estimate to reflect exactly how thoroughly the Yankees commanded the outcome.