Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners rallied for four runs in the top of the ninth inning to defeat the San Francisco Giants 6-5 at Oracle Park on July 3, 2023, overcoming a late deficit in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate had pegged as a 59 percent home-side proposition before first pitch. The Giants had taken a 5-2 lead into the final frame, but a Ty France hit by pitch off Camilo Doval, a Julio Rodríguez double, and a Kolten Wong fielder's choice headlined a four-run Seattle surge that proved decisive. Those three plays combined for 37.8 percentage points of win probability added in the batting team's favor, reflecting just how thoroughly the Mariners dismantled Doval in that inning. Paul Sewald then closed the door in the bottom of the ninth, and the single most impactful defensive moment of the game came when Sewald struck out Brandon Crawford to strand the tying run, a swing of plus-27.0 percent win probability that sealed the final out.

Blake Sabol had given San Francisco its best offensive moment earlier, launching a fourth-inning home run off Bryan Woo that produced a plus-21.6 percent win-probability swing and ranked as the game's biggest positive play for the home side. Sabol finished as the Giants' top batter by WPA at plus-18.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.8, while Crawford paradoxically led all batters at plus-22.6 percent WPA despite making the final out, a function of how tightly contested the ninth inning had become. On the pitching side, Andrés Muñoz led Seattle's relievers with plus-10.9 percent WPA, followed closely by Tyler Rogers at plus-10.6 percent and Ty Adcock at plus-8.3 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for San Francisco, a clean endpoint to a game that slipped entirely out of the Giants' hands in the final three outs.