Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Chicago Cubs 8-6 on July 3, 2023, at American Family Field, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked all the way to 100% in favor of Milwaukee by game's end. The Cubs had built a 6-3 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh, but the Brewers erased it with a three-run frame and then pulled ahead for good with two more in the eighth. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with Milwaukee as a 62% favorite at home, and while Chicago's early offense gave the model reason to recalibrate, the Brewers' late surge ultimately validated that pre-game lean.

The single biggest swing of the contest came in the bottom of the seventh when Jahmai Jones delivered a double off Anthony Kay, a hit the DiamondIQ model measured at +33.5% win probability added, the most impactful play of the game. Christian Yelich contributed significantly as well, accumulating +27.2% WPA across the evening to rank second among all batters. Nick Madrigal provided Chicago's brightest offensive moment with a double off Julio Teheran in the top of the third, a play worth +12.3% WPA that briefly tightened the game. In the bottom of the eighth, Willy Adames added a single off Mark Leiter Jr. worth +13.1% WPA to extend Milwaukee's cushion.

On the pitching side, the Brewers' bullpen was decisive. Michael Fulmer led all pitchers with +18.1% WPA, followed by Joel Payamps at +10.6% WPA and Devin Williams at +6.3% WPA. Drew Smyly factored into an early negative swing when Joey Wiemer's forceout in the bottom of the second registered -11.8% WPA against Milwaukee, briefly stalling a Brewer rally. Chicago finished with ten hits but the lone Cubs error and Milwaukee's ability to concentrate damage in the seventh and eighth innings proved to be the difference in the final box score.