St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 5-4 on July 3, 2023, at loanDepot park, rallying from a deficit to secure a win the DiamondIQ model had assigned a 69 percent pre-game probability of occurring for the home side. Miami's decisive moment came in the bottom of the seventh inning, when a three-run frame against Cardinals reliever Andre Pallante effectively decided the contest. Yuli Gurriel's double in that inning carried the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-21.6 percent, and Nick Fortes followed with a single that added another 15.4 percent to Miami's chances, turning what had been a Cardinals lead into a Marlins advantage they would not relinquish.

St. Louis had done enough offensively to keep the game competitive, finishing with 11 hits against a Miami staff that allowed just six. Willson Contreras provided the Cardinals' most impactful individual moment through six innings, depositing a home run off Braxton Garrett in the third to add 10.6 percent to St. Louis's win probability. Paul DeJong was the Cardinals' most valuable offensive contributor by the model's accounting, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-18.6 percent, anchored by a sixth-inning double off Andrew Nardi that briefly tilted the game back toward St. Louis. Paul Goldschmidt's ninth-inning single off A.J. Puk added 10.6 percent but proved too late, as Miami closed out the final two frames without incident.

On the mound, Miles Mikolas led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-18.7 percent for the Cardinals, while Miami's bullpen carried the win home. A.J. Puk posted a plus-15.2 percent WPA despite surrendering the Goldschmidt single, and Tanner Scott contributed plus-10.8 percent to close the door. The DiamondIQ model's estimate reached 100 percent by game's end, reflecting a Cardinals late-inning rally that fell one run short of completing the comeback.