New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the New York Yankees 5-1 at Busch Stadium on July 2, 2023, handing New York a lopsided loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 41 percent home win probability for St. Louis. The Cardinals were held scoreless through three innings but broke through in the fourth, with Andrew Knizner's single off Gerrit Cole generating the single biggest win-probability swing of that frame at plus-9.6 percent. Nolan Arenado added a double off Cole worth plus-6.8 percent, and Alec Burleson followed with a single that pushed the Cardinals' advantage further, accounting for another plus-6.4 percent. By the time the fourth inning concluded, St. Louis had seized firm control of the game with a 2-0 lead and a probability trajectory that left little room for a Yankee comeback.

The seventh inning effectively closed the door. Jake Bauers delivered a double off Jordan Montgomery in the top half that represented the Yankees' most meaningful threat of the night, a plus-9.3 percent swing that briefly offered New York a foothold. But Brendan Donovan answered in the bottom of the seventh with a home run off Jimmy Cordero that was the single most decisive play of the contest, adding plus-16.1 percent in win probability and pushing the Cardinals' lead to 4-1. Donovan finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-21.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Knizner contributed plus-10.1 percent WPA and Arenado added plus-6.7 percent. St. Louis tacked on an additional run in the eighth to reach the final margin of 5-1.

On the mound, Jordan Montgomery was the central figure, posting a WPA of plus-26.0 percent for St. Louis despite surrendering the Bauers double, as he kept the Yankees largely in check throughout his outing. Giovanny Gallegos contributed plus-6.3 percent out of the bullpen. Gerrit Cole absorbed the bulk of the damage for New York, as the Cardinals extracted two runs from him in the fourth inning across the three key plate appearances that shifted the contest. The Yankees managed only three hits and committed two errors, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of home win probability reached 100 percent by game's end, reflecting how thoroughly St. Louis controlled the contest.