Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox edged the Toronto Blue Jays 5-4 at Rogers Centre on July 2, 2023, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected sharply — Toronto entered the day as a 56% favorite but finished with a 0% win probability after a decisive late swing. The game turned on a single play in the top of the ninth, when Alex Verdugo drove a home run off Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano, shifting win probability by +34.2% and putting Boston ahead by the margin that would hold. Toronto had built its advantage partly through Bo Bichette's single off Kaleb Ort in the third inning, a play worth +16.0% in win probability, and Brandon Belt's home run off Nick Pivetta in the sixth, which added +12.2%. The Blue Jays received little help from their offense in the final frame, as Whit Merrifield's flyout to end the ninth off Joe Jacques swung win probability +31.6% in Boston's favor from the batting team's perspective, sealing the loss.

Among the individual performers, Verdugo led all batters with a +31.1% WPA mark while Jarren Duran posted the strongest RE24 on either side at +2.2. Merrifield finished at +23.3% WPA despite the negative RE24, a reflection of his role in keeping Toronto's final rally alive before it stalled. On the pitching side, Yimi García paced all pitchers with +13.5% WPA, followed by Chris Martin at +10.9% and Trevor Richards at +10.6%, a trio that did enough to preserve the one-run lead Verdugo had provided. Boston's clean fielding — zero errors against Toronto's one — also factored into the Red Sox holding on through a game that Rogers Centre's home crowd had reason to expect would go the other way.