San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the San Diego Padres 4-3 on July 2, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate supported from the outset, with Cincinnati entering the game at a 62% pre-game win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out.
The Reds opened the scoring in the fourth inning when Spencer Steer connected on a home run off Tim Hill, a swing that added 21.6% to Cincinnati's win probability and proved to be the game's first decisive blow. The score remained 2-0 until the eighth inning, when the Padres mounted a sharp two-run rally on back-to-back home runs from Ha-Seong Kim off Andrew Abbott, worth 12.7%, and Fernando Tatis Jr. off Lucas Sims, worth 19.0%, briefly tightening the contest at 2-2. Cincinnati responded immediately in the bottom half of the eighth, as Tyler Stephenson launched a two-run home run off Nick Martinez that swung win probability by 35.6%, the single largest play of the game, restoring the Reds' lead at 4-2. San Diego added a run in the ninth but could not complete the comeback.
Stephenson finished as the game's most impactful hitter at plus-35.6% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Steer was close behind at plus-25.0% WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. On the pitching side, Andrew Abbott led Cincinnati's staff with plus-23.2% WPA, followed by Adrian Morejon at plus-16.0% WPA, whose best moment came in the third inning when Jonathan India grounded into a double play, a sequence that cost San Diego 12.0% in win probability and stifled any early Padres threat.