Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park on July 2, 2023, handing the home side a loss despite Philadelphia entering with a 66 percent pre-game win probability per the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Washington seized control early, breaking the game open in the third inning with a four-run frame highlighted by a Stone Garrett home run off Ranger Suarez that swung win probability 32.4 points in the Nationals' favor. Jeimer Candelario added a solo shot off Suarez in the fifth to push the lead to 5-3, a swing worth 11.8 points of win probability that proved to be the final margin of separation.

Philadelphia threatened late but could not complete the comeback. Brandon Marsh grounded into a double play in the eighth against Kyle Finnegan, a sequence that shifted win probability 27.3 points toward Washington, effectively extinguishing one of the Phillies' best scoring opportunities. Darick Hall had grounded into a double play two innings earlier off José A. Ferrer, a 16.1-point swing that compounded the damage. In the ninth, Nick Castellanos's flyout off Hunter Harvey ended the game and registered as a 31.6-point win-probability shift given the stakes, reflecting just how close Philadelphia had drawn before the final out.

Garrett finished as one of Washington's most impactful performers with a WPA of plus-23.4 and an RE24 of plus-2.9, while Castellanos led all batters at plus-38.7 WPA despite the Phillies falling short. Bryson Stott contributed a plus-15.2 WPA on the Philadelphia side. On the mound, Finnegan was the decisive figure for Washington at plus-28.4 WPA, with Yunior Marte and Trevor Williams adding plus-10.4 and plus-8.4, respectively, as the Nationals bullpen secured the road win.