MLB Recap · July 2, 2023

Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

LAD1
Final
KC9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAD000100000161
KC01033200-9150

The Story

The Kansas City Royals routed the Los Angeles Dodgers 9-1 on July 2, 2023, at Kauffman Stadium, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 29% home win probability into a near-certain outcome by the middle frames. The Royals built their margin methodically, scoring in the second, fourth, and fifth innings before adding two more in the sixth to put the game well out of reach. Los Angeles managed just one run on six hits, with an error compounding their troubles against a Kansas City pitching staff that controlled the game from the opening pitch.

The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the fourth, where Nicky Lopez delivered the game's single most impactful at-bat, a double off Tony Gonsolin that shifted win probability by plus-16.0 percentage points. That hit punctuated a three-run inning that effectively ended any realistic Dodger path back into the contest. Gonsolin had already been tested in the second, when Salvador Perez grounded out in a sequence worth plus-6.5 percentage points for Kansas City, followed immediately by a Maikel Garcia single that added another plus-6.1 points. On the other side, the Dodgers' offense fell silent early, with James Outman's strikeout in the second carrying a minus-8.3 percentage point swing and J.D. Martinez's first-inning strikeout costing minus-6.6 points, both against Brady Singer.

Brady Singer was the performance anchor of the night, finishing with a plus-21.2 percentage point contribution by WPA, the highest mark among all pitchers. Among position players, Lopez led all batters at plus-16.7 WPA and plus-2.1 RE24, while Maikel Garcia posted the game's top RE24 figure at plus-2.5 to go with his plus-7.2 WPA. Drew Waters also stood out at plus-11.2 WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, rounding out a balanced offensive performance for Kansas City that left the DiamondIQ model registering full certainty by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAD bats firstFinalKC win %LAD win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 28.6% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Nicky Lopez Double
Bot 4th · off Tony Gonsolin
+16.0%
James Outman Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Brady Singer
-8.3%
J.D. Martinez Strikeout
Top 1st · off Brady Singer
-6.6%
Salvador Perez Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Tony Gonsolin
+6.5%
Maikel Garcia Single
Bot 2nd · off Tony Gonsolin
+6.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Nicky Lopez+16.7%+2.1 RE24
Drew Waters+11.2%+1.8 RE24
Maikel Garcia+7.2%+2.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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