Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-3 at PNC Park on July 2, 2023, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in full, with Pittsburgh's win probability falling from 47% before first pitch to zero by the final out. The Brewers built their lead in stages, first seizing control in the third inning when William Contreras connected on a home run off Rich Hill, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 23.9 percentage points and stood as one of the two most consequential plays of the game. Milwaukee then applied the decisive blow in the eighth, where a fielding error on a Brice Turang at-bat off Ryan Borucki generated a plus 24.4 percentage point swing, the single largest win-probability event of the night, ultimately pushing the Brewers to a two-run frame and putting the contest out of reach.
Pittsburgh offered resistance in spurts but could not sustain it. Nick Gonzales provided the Pirates their brightest moment with a second-inning home run off Colin Rea worth plus 9.6 percentage points, and Joshua Palacios added a double in the bottom of the eighth off Elvis Peguero that moved the needle plus 11.0 points. However, Gonzales also grounded out later in that same inning in a minus 8.8 percentage point moment, effectively extinguishing the rally before it could fully develop. Pittsburgh finished with two errors against Milwaukee's one, and those miscues proved costly against a Brewers lineup that converted opportunities.
On the individual ledger, Contreras led all batters with a plus 23.4 WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.0, confirming his third-inning blast as the offensive centerpiece of the game. Turang finished second among position players at plus 17.1 WPA despite his run coming via an opponent's error, while Palacios contributed plus 11.1 WPA in a losing effort for Pittsburgh. Among pitchers, Colin Rea paced all arms with plus 14.7 WPA despite surrendering the Contreras home run, supported by Angel Perdomo at plus 9.4 WPA and Hoby Milner at plus 4.6 WPA, a bullpen trio that kept Milwaukee from extending the margin further in the middle frames.