New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals routed the New York Yankees 11-4 at Busch Stadium on July 1, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 41 percent pre-game home win probability into a near-certainty by the middle innings. The Cardinals scored in bunches, plating five runs in the third, two more in the fourth, and four additional in the fifth before the Yankees managed any meaningful response, finishing with a final tally that left no doubt about the outcome.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the third inning, when Paul Goldschmidt launched a home run off Luis Severino that swung win probability by 24.7 percent in St. Louis's favor, the single most impactful play of the game by a wide margin according to the DiamondIQ model. Severino continued to struggle through that frame, surrendering a Paul DeJong single that added another 4.1 percent swing and an Alec Burleson single worth 5.8 percent, as the Cardinals sent multiple runners across the plate. New York's Jake Bauers had a chance to change the complexion of the game with the bases occupied in the top of the third, but his flyout off Jack Flaherty cost the Yankees 4.7 percent in win probability and kept the score at zero before St. Louis broke it open.

Goldschmidt led all position players with a 24.7 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.3, while DeJong and Burleson contributed 5.6 and 4.7 percent WPA respectively to support the Cardinals' offensive effort. On the mound, Jack Flaherty was the standout performer, posting a team-best 17.9 percent WPA as he suppressed the Yankees lineup during the critical early innings. The Yankees committed two errors on the night against a Cardinals team that played clean defensively, compounding New York's difficulties in a lopsided defeat.