San Francisco Giants at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Mets defeated the San Francisco Giants 4-1 at Citi Field on July 1, 2023, in a game that was effectively decided in a single third-inning burst. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Mets a 43% chance of winning, but that figure climbed sharply and never looked back after New York erupted for three runs in the bottom of the third against Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani. Francisco Alvarez led the inning with a home run worth a +10.9% swing in win probability, Brandon Nimmo followed with another long ball that added 10.2%, and Francisco Lindor contributed a third home run of the inning at +8.6%. The Mets tacked on another run in the fourth to build a 4-0 cushion, leaving San Francisco with little margin for error the rest of the way.
Justin Verlander made that cushion stand up emphatically, posting the game's top pitching performance at +24.1% win probability added. His most consequential moment came in the top of the seventh, when a Thairo Estrada double play removed a potential Giants threat and swung the probability 8.6% back toward New York, followed by a Patrick Bailey fielder's choice that contributed an additional +7.1% from the Mets' perspective. San Francisco's lone run came in the seventh but proved inconsequential as the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled at 100% in New York's favor by game's end. Drew Smith and Adam Ottavino finished the game out of the bullpen, adding +4.5% and +2.4% to the Mets' win probability respectively.
Among individual batters, Nimmo led the way at +9.4% WPA with a +0.5 RE24, just edging Alvarez who finished at +9.3% WPA and +0.5 RE24. Tommy Pham posted the game's best RE24 among top performers at +0.8, complementing his +7.2% WPA contribution. The Giants were held to five hits and committed no errors, but the three home runs surrendered in one inning to DeSclafani proved insurmountable against a Verlander-led pitching performance that gave New York firm control from the third inning onward.