Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Pittsburgh Pirates an 11-8 defeat at PNC Park on July 1, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 49 percent pre-game home win probability for Pittsburgh and reducing it to zero by the final out. Milwaukee struck early and decisively, plating one run in the first inning before erupting for five in the second, and Johan Oviedo bore the brunt of that damage. Christian Yelich's home run off Oviedo in the top of the second carried a win-probability swing of 8.4 percent in Milwaukee's favor, and a Victor Caratini flyout earlier in that same frame actually shifted the probabilities 9.7 percent toward the Brewers as Pittsburgh failed to generate any offsetting momentum. Pittsburgh's most damaging individual moment came in its own half of the second, when Tucupita Marcano struck out against Corbin Burnes in a spot carrying an 11.1 percent negative swing for the Pirates, a failure that underscored how completely Burnes controlled the early innings.

Corbin Burnes was the single most impactful performer of the night by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-21.5 percent, a figure that speaks to how consistently he suppressed Pittsburgh's offense during his time on the mound. Yelich and Caratini led the Milwaukee offense by WPA at plus-7.9 and plus-10.1 percent respectively, with Yelich also generating a RE24 of plus-3.3, reflecting meaningful run-environment value beyond the win-probability framing. Pittsburgh did stage a six-run rally in the bottom of the eighth off Bryse Wilson, capped by Jared Triolo's double that added 4.7 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability, but the Brewers had built too large a cushion for it to matter. Andrew McCutchen's strikeout against Joel Payamps to close out the ninth, carrying a 6.3 percent swing toward Milwaukee, ended any remaining hope for the Pirates as Milwaukee walked away with the road victory, 11-8.