New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-2 at Busch Stadium on June 30, 2023, completing the game with a three-run ninth inning that closed out any remaining hope for the home side. The DiamondIQ model had entered the night giving the Cardinals a 40 percent chance of winning on their home field, but that figure fell to zero percent by the final out. The Yankees scored in each of the first two innings, with Anthony Volpe delivering a triple off Matthew Liberatore in the second that swung win probability 7.1 percent in New York's favor, and the Cardinals managed their only sustained threat through Jordan Walker's third-inning double off Ron Marinaccio, a play worth 9.8 percent in St. Louis's direction. The game remained a two-run Yankees lead through seven innings before the night's most consequential sequence unfolded.

The eighth inning proved decisive in ways the Cardinals could not recover from. Tommy Kahnle worked the frame for New York and generated the two biggest single-play probability swings of the entire game. Alec Burleson drew a walk that briefly moved St. Louis's chances upward by 7.0 percent, but Dylan Carlson followed with a forceout that collapsed those hopes by 16.5 percent, the largest win-probability swing of the night. Paul DeJong then struck out to end the threat, costing the Cardinals another 7.7 percent. Kahnle finished as the second-most-valuable pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, adding 23.3 percent win probability, behind only Michael King's 26.4 percent. On offense, Paul Goldschmidt led Yankees batters with a 9.5 percent contribution and a RE24 of plus-0.6, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa posted a RE24 of plus-1.0 to go with his 7.6 percent WPA. Starting pitcher Dakota Hudson absorbed the loss for St. Louis, finishing with a negative 22.2 percent impact by the model's measure.