Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates walked off with an 8-7 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on June 30, 2023, at PNC Park in one of the more dramatic finishes of the season. Pittsburgh entered the game with the DiamondIQ model's estimate placing each side at an even 50 percent pre-game win probability, and for much of the night the game reflected that balance. Milwaukee struck first and hardest, plating four runs in the top of the third on a Christian Yelich double off Osvaldo Bido that registered a win-probability swing of plus-12.6 percent, staking the Brewers to a lead they carried into the middle innings. Pittsburgh chipped back with three in the bottom of the fourth, with Nick Gonzales delivering a double off Freddy Peralta worth plus-13.5 percent. Milwaukee then seized control again in the top of the seventh, when Brice Turang doubled off Dauri Moreta for a plus-15.7 percent swing and Owen Miller followed with another double off Moreta worth plus-13.6 percent, pushing the Brewers ahead 7-4 heading to the late innings.

Pittsburgh erased that deficit piece by piece before Carlos Santana delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth, a home run off Matt Bush that swung win probability by plus-94.8 percent and completed what had appeared to be an improbable comeback. Santana finished as the game's dominant figure by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-102.9 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.9. Christian Yelich led Milwaukee's contributors with a WPA of plus-16.0 percent and an RE24 of plus-0.9, while Jack Suwinski added plus-14.3 percent WPA for Pittsburgh. On the mound, Yerry De los Santos led all Pittsburgh pitchers with a plus-7.3 percent WPA, followed by Thomas Pannone at plus-4.4 percent and Carmen Mlodzinski at plus-2.5 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, a reflection of just how completely Santana's ninth-inning blast settled the outcome.