MLB Recap · June 29, 2023

Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

TB6
Final
AZ1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
TB105000000690
AZ000000100180

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Arizona Diamondbacks a 6-1 defeat at Chase Field on June 29, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an Arizona win falling from 45% before first pitch to 0% by game's end. The game remained relatively close through two innings before Tampa Bay broke it open decisively in the third, scoring five runs to push their total to six on the night. Arizona's lone run came in the bottom of the seventh, by which point the outcome was no longer in doubt.

The pivotal sequence came in the top of the third inning against Brandon Pfaadt, with Wander Franco delivering a triple that shifted win probability by 16.1 percentage points in Tampa Bay's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Vidal Bruján followed with a double that added another 5.9 percentage points, extending what became an insurmountable advantage. Arizona's best opportunity had come an inning earlier in the bottom of the second, when Christian Walker doubled off Zack Littell to move the needle 4.7 points toward the home side, but strikeouts and flyouts from Evan Longoria and Pavin Smith erased that momentum, swinging a combined 8.9 percentage points back toward Tampa Bay.

Franco finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating a WPA of plus-15.8 with an RE24 of plus-1.3. Walker was Arizona's lone bright spot offensively, posting a WPA of plus-6.1. On the mound, Zack Littell led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-7.7 despite the Walker double, while Yonny Chirinos contributed plus-6.1 in support of Tampa Bay's dominant pitching effort.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalAZ win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 45.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Wander Franco Triple
Top 3rd · off Brandon Pfaadt
+16.1%
Vidal Bruján Double
Top 3rd · off Brandon Pfaadt
+5.9%
Christian Walker Double
Bot 2nd · off Zack Littell
+4.7%
Evan Longoria Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Zack Littell
-4.5%
Pavin Smith Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Zack Littell
-4.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Wander Franco+15.8%+1.3 RE24
Christian Walker+6.1%+0.4 RE24
Vidal Bruján+5.1%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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