San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the San Diego Padres 5-4 at PNC Park on June 29, 2023, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Pittsburgh win climb from 56% before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. San Diego struck first and hard in the top of the second, putting three runs on the board against Joe Musgrove, and the Padres carried that lead deep into the contest. Musgrove steadied after the early damage, and his strikeout of Ji Hwan Bae in the bottom of the second represented a 10.2% swing in win probability that helped keep Pittsburgh's deficit from growing worse. The Pirates chipped away with a run in the fourth when Carlos Santana doubled off Musgrove for a 10.4% win-probability swing, and added another in the sixth, but the game's decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the seventh.

Trailing by one with the game on the line, Pittsburgh mounted a three-run seventh that turned the contest entirely. Henry Davis delivered the biggest single swing of the game, a single off Luis García that added 19.3% to Pittsburgh's win probability, and Jack Suwinski followed with a single off Tim Hill worth another 14.6%, capping a rally that gave the Pirates a lead they would not relinquish. Davis finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined 30.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7. Ha-Seong Kim contributed on the San Diego side with 11.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1, while Gary Sánchez drew a walk off David Bednar in the top of the ninth that generated a 10.6% swing and briefly kept Padres hopes alive. Bednar ultimately slammed the door, finishing with 21.9% WPA to lead all Pittsburgh pitchers, as Musgrove's 18.6% WPA reflected his recovery after the troublesome second inning.