Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers handed the New York Mets a 3-2 defeat at Citi Field on June 29, 2023, completing a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability falling from 45% before the first pitch to 0% at the final out. New York struck first in the bottom of the third when Brett Baty connected on a two-run home run off Adrian Houser, a swing that shifted win probability 10.9 points in the Mets' favor and gave them what appeared to be a comfortable early cushion. That advantage evaporated in the top of the sixth, however, when Victor Caratini answered with a home run off Max Scherzer, a decisive blow worth 21.8 percentage points in win probability that erased New York's lead and set the tone for everything that followed. Milwaukee added a run in the seventh to take a 3-2 edge they would not relinquish.
The Mets had chances to respond but squandered them in damaging fashion. The single costliest moment of the game came in the bottom of the seventh, when Starling Marte grounded into a double play against Elvis Peguero, a sequence that swung win probability 26.4 points against New York and effectively extinguished a rally. Marte compounded his evening's difficulties by striking out against Devin Williams in the ninth, a moment that, while adding 11.0 points to Milwaukee's chances, closed the door on any remaining hope. Tommy Pham's groundout off Joel Payamps in the eighth, costing the Mets 12.9 percentage points, further illustrated how thoroughly the home side was shut down in the late innings.
On the pitching side, Peguero and Payamps were the DiamondIQ model's standout performers, contributing 26.4 and 23.3 WPA points respectively in critical relief appearances. Offensively, Caratini led all batters with a WPA of plus-23.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.1, while Brandon Nimmo added plus-19.8 WPA and plus-1.8 RE24 in a losing effort for New York. Mark Canha contributed plus-15.7 WPA for Milwaukee. Both clubs finished with nine hits apiece and committed one error each, making execution in the highest-leverage situations the true separator in a tightly contested game the Brewers ultimately controlled where it mattered most.