MLB Recap · June 28, 2023

Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

MIN0
Final
ATL3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIN000000000040
ATL10100001-360

The Story

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Minnesota Twins 3-0 on June 28, 2023, at Truist Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at a 71% home win probability and closing at 100% as Atlanta's pitching staff methodically shut down Minnesota's lineup across nine innings.

The Twins had their best opportunity to change the complexion of the game in the fourth inning, when Byron Buxton delivered a double off Kolby Allard that added 6.6% to Minnesota's win probability. However, Kyle Farmer's fielder's choice out later in the same frame erased 7.6%, keeping the Braves ahead. Atlanta extended its lead with a run in the third and another in the eighth, the latter coming on a Matt Olson home run off Jordan Balazovic that added 6.4% to Atlanta's win probability. The most decisive single moment for Minnesota came in the seventh, when Christian Vázquez grounded into a double play against A.J. Minter, swinging win probability 9.5% against the Twins and effectively closing the door on any late rally.

Ronald Acuña Jr. led all position players with a WPA of plus-8.4% and a RE24 of plus-1.4, while Olson contributed plus-6.5% WPA and a team-high plus-1.6 RE24. Willi Castro added plus-4.9% WPA to round out Atlanta's offensive contributors. On the mound, Kirby Yates was the top-rated pitcher at plus-11.7% WPA, followed by Kenta Maeda at plus-8.5% and Allard at plus-8.4%, as the three combined to stifle a Twins offense that managed just four hits with no errors on the night.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIN bats firstFinalATL win %MIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 70.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Christian Vázquez Double Play
Top 7th · off A.J. Minter
-9.5%
Kyle Farmer Fielders Choice Out
Top 4th · off Kolby Allard
-7.6%
Top 5th · off Kolby Allard
+6.9%
Byron Buxton Double
Top 4th · off Kolby Allard
+6.6%
Matt Olson Home Run
Bot 8th · off Jordan Balazovic
+6.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Ronald Acuña Jr.+8.4%+1.4 RE24
Matt Olson+6.5%+1.6 RE24
Willi Castro+4.9%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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