Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds erased a four-run first-inning deficit to defeat the Baltimore Orioles 11-7 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 28, 2023, completing the comeback with a four-run tenth inning that closed the door on a Baltimore club that had entered as a 62-percent favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Reds poured out 16 hits against an Orioles staff that allowed two errors, and the game swung decisively in extra innings when Will Benson delivered a triple off Keegan Akin in the top of the tenth, a single play that shifted win probability by 48.4 percentage points and ultimately stood as the most impactful moment of the night. Benson finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a combined WPA of plus-53.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5.

The eighth inning had already redrawn the game's contours before Benson's decisive blow. Adam Frazier crushed a home run off Buck Farmer in the bottom of the eighth that swung win probability 37.4 points in Baltimore's favor, briefly restoring Orioles momentum after the Reds had trimmed the lead. Frazier finished with a WPA of plus-38.4 and a RE24 of plus-2.2, making him the second most impactful bat in the game. The ninth inning carried its own tension, as Nick Senzel singled off Félix Bautista to move the needle 22.5 points toward Cincinnati, though Spencer Steer's strikeout against Bautista in the same frame pulled it back 18.9 points, keeping Baltimore alive entering the tenth. Among pitchers, Luke Weaver led the way with a WPA of plus-14.8, while Bautista, despite surrendering the Senzel single, finished at plus-13.5 on the strength of the Steer strikeout.