San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| PIT | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | - | 7 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the San Diego Padres 7-1 at PNC Park on June 28, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model tracked from a 55% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Pittsburgh plated two runs in the first inning and then broke the game open with a five-run seventh, while San Diego's lone run came in the sixth. The Pirates finished with nine hits and committed no errors, while the Padres managed seven hits but were held in check throughout.
The most consequential single play of the night came in the top of the sixth, when Xander Bogaerts singled off Mitch Keller to shift win probability 10.6 points in San Diego's favor, representing the Padres' best — and ultimately fleeting — chance to get back into the contest. Fernando Tatis Jr. also singled in the same frame, adding another 5.3 points of win probability, yet San Diego's rally came to nothing. The game's decisive stretch arrived in the bottom of the seventh, where Joshua Palacios and Connor Joe each singled off Nick Martinez, shifting probability 5.8 and 5.3 points respectively toward Pittsburgh as the Pirates put the game away. Ha-Seong Kim's flyout in the second inning, which cost San Diego 7.7 points of win probability against Keller, reflected how thoroughly Keller controlled the Padres lineup all evening.
Mitch Keller was the standout performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, leading all players with a WPA of plus-18.8%, anchoring a pitching staff that also received contributions from Carmen Mlodzinski at plus-8.5% and Blake Snell on the San Diego side at plus-7.5%. Among position players, Bogaerts led all batters at plus-8.3% WPA despite being on the losing side, while Carlos Santana paced Pittsburgh's offense with a plus-5.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.3, the highest run-environment impact of any position player in the game. The model leans toward crediting Keller's performance as the single largest factor in Pittsburgh's comfortable margin of victory.