Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the New York Mets a 5-2 defeat at Citi Field on June 28, 2023, building steadily against a New York lineup that could never fully capitalize on its early opportunities. The DiamondIQ model opened the game giving the Mets a 46 percent chance of winning at home, but that estimate eroded through a series of consequential at-bats and never recovered, finishing at zero.

The most decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth inning, when Christian Yelich delivered a single off Adam Ottavino that shifted win probability by plus-21.6 percent in Milwaukee's favor, the single largest swing of the game. The Brewers had already extended their lead with a run in the sixth on a Blake Perkins single off Grant Hartwig, a hit worth plus-11.4 percent. New York's best chance to change the complexion of the contest arrived in the bottom of the fourth, where Tommy Pham drew a walk off Wade Miley to nudge the Mets' outlook up by plus-11.6 percent and Francisco Alvarez followed with another walk for plus-9.5 percent. However, Mark Canha grounded into a double play to end that threat, a play that cost New York minus-16.3 percent in win probability and effectively neutralized the inning's promise.

By the final accounting, Tommy Pham led all position players with a WPA of plus-24.8 and an RE24 of plus-2.5, while Yelich finished at plus-22.0 WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. Owen Miller also contributed positively at plus-12.2 WPA. On the mound, Kodai Senga paced all pitchers with plus-12.6 WPA for the Mets, but Milwaukee's bullpen held firm, with Bryse Wilson adding plus-10.4 WPA and Elvis Peguero contributing plus-9.7 WPA to close out the Brewers' road win.