Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies handed the Chicago Cubs a 5-1 defeat at Wrigley Field on June 27, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Chicago win falling from 49% before first pitch all the way to 0% by game's end. Philadelphia scored in each of the first two innings before pulling away decisively in the fifth, and Ranger Suarez was the central force keeping the Cubs contained throughout.
Brandon Marsh was the offensive catalyst, delivering the two most consequential swings of the afternoon, both at the expense of Cubs starter Jameson Taillon. His second-inning home run added 4.9% to Philadelphia's win probability, and then his fifth-inning home run — part of a three-run frame that effectively closed the door — swung the win probability an additional 13.3%, representing the single largest win-probability event of the game. Marsh finished with a combined WPA of plus 18.2% and a RE24 of plus 2.8, making him the clear standout on the day. Kody Clemens also contributed positively, finishing at plus 6.1% WPA.
On the mound, Ranger Suarez was dominant, accumulating plus 30.1% WPA for Philadelphia, the highest figure of any player in the game. He navigated several Cubs threats, most notably in the fourth inning where Ian Happ grounded into a double play that cost Chicago 9.4% in win probability and Trey Mancini's second-inning groundout removed another 5.7%. The Cubs' lone run came in the eighth inning, too late to alter a result that the DiamondIQ model had already fully resolved in Philadelphia's favor.