Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Milwaukee Brewers a 7-2 defeat at Citi Field on June 27, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home-team win moving from a near-even 48% before first pitch all the way to 100% by game's end. The Mets did their damage gradually and then decisively, scoring two runs in the fourth, two more in the fifth, and three in the sixth while holding Milwaukee scoreless until a meaningless two-run eighth.

The swing of the game came on the bats of Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor in back-to-back fashion off Brewers starter Julio Teheran. Lindor's fourth-inning home run added 10.5 percentage points to New York's win probability, and Nimmo followed with his own home run in that same frame, pushing the needle another 11.4 points. Nimmo then struck again in the fifth with another home run off Teheran, a swing worth 14.6 percentage points that effectively sealed the outcome. On the Milwaukee side, Luis Urías grounded into a double play in the top of the fourth against David Peterson, a moment that cost the Brewers 8.2 percentage points, and Brian Anderson's strikeout in that same inning removed another 4.4 points from Milwaukee's chances.

Nimmo finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-25.4 and an RE24 of plus-2.5, while Lindor added plus-10.7 WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. David Peterson was the standout on the mound, generating plus-26.3 WPA to lead all pitchers and keep Milwaukee's lineup largely in check throughout. Willy Adames contributed a modest plus-3.1 WPA for the Brewers in what amounted to a difficult night for Milwaukee across the board.