Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Houston Astros 4-2 at Busch Stadium on June 27, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 43 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. St. Louis built its lead through a steady accumulation of damage against Astros starter Framber Valdez, with the decisive stretch arriving in the third through fifth innings. Paul DeJong's home run in the bottom of the third added 10.6 percent to the Cardinals' win probability, and Brendan Donovan's walk in the fourth contributed another 9.9 percent as the Cardinals continued to work Valdez. The fifth inning proved to be the turning point, where Nolan Arenado's double added 9.8 percent and Dylan Carlson followed with a single that pushed the probability swing to 13.2 percent, representing the single most impactful batting play of the game.

Houston's best chance to claw back came in the top of the seventh, but Bligh Madris's flyout off Giovanny Gallegos cost the Astros 12.2 percent in win probability, effectively ending any realistic comeback scenario. Gallegos was the game's most dominant performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, finishing with a 20.3 percent WPA contribution from the mound. Jordan Montgomery added 10.3 percent and Jordan Hicks contributed 6.3 percent, giving the Cardinals a deep and effective bullpen effort that held Houston's offense in check after the early innings. Among position players, Carlson led all hitters at plus 13.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of 1.0, while Arenado posted plus 8.5 percent WPA and Martín Maldonado contributed plus 8.4 percent WPA, each with a RE24 of 0.9. The Cardinals finished with eight hits and four runs, enough to hand the Astros a 2-4 loss on the road.