Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Cincinnati Reds 10-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 26, 2023, in a game that was never particularly close after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Baltimore at 64% and watched that figure climb steadily, reaching 100% by the final out. The Orioles scored in five of nine innings, building their lead through a series of clutch situational hits against a Cincinnati pitching staff that struggled to strand runners.

The game's most consequential sequence arrived in the bottom of the second, where Austin Hays delivered a single off Brandon Williamson that represented a +10.4% swing in win probability, the single largest play of the contest. The third inning piled on further damage, as Jordan Westburg's forceout off Fernando Cruz added another +7.5% and Cedric Mullins drew a walk from the same pitcher for +6.6%, compounding pressure on the Reds' bullpen. Baltimore extended its advantage in the fifth when Ramón Urías doubled off Eduardo Salazar for an additional +5.2% swing, pushing the Orioles well beyond reach. Cincinnati's lone significant momentum moment came in the top of the sixth, when they scored twice to trim the deficit temporarily, but the Orioles responded with three runs in the seventh to close the door.

Among individual performers, Austin Hays finished as the top batter by WPA at +10.8% with a +1.3 RE24, while Jordan Westburg posted +10.4% WPA and led all hitters with a +1.5 RE24. Spencer Steer was the standout for Cincinnati, registering +7.0% WPA and a game-high +3.0 RE24, though his efforts came in a losing cause. On the mound, Bruce Zimmermann led Baltimore's pitching staff with a +6.4% WPA contribution, and Bryan Baker added +2.9% in support.