Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the New York Mets 2-1 at Citi Field on June 26, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win opening at 54 percent before falling to zero by the final out. The Mets grabbed the game's first run in the bottom of the fourth against Colin Rea, but Milwaukee answered decisively in the top of the sixth when Joey Wiemer connected on a home run off Drew Smith, a swing that shifted win probability by 26.5 points in the Brewers' favor and ultimately provided both the lead and the margin of victory. Wiemer finished as the second-most impactful batter by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a WPA of plus-14.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0, making his sixth-inning blast the offensive turning point of the contest.

The Mets had chances to respond but could not convert when it mattered most. Starling Marte's strikeout against Elvis Peguero in the bottom of the eighth shifted win probability 12.9 points against New York, and Francisco Lindor grounded out against Devin Williams in the ninth for a further swing of minus-8.5 points. The biggest single play of the game came in that ninth inning when Daniel Vogelbach popped out against Williams, a moment that added 31.6 points of win probability from the Brewers' perspective and effectively sealed the outcome. Vogelbach led all batters with a WPA of plus-27.9 percent despite a RE24 of minus-0.3, a reflection of how much his out meant in that high-leverage moment. Williams earned the save while Rea and Hoby Milner each contributed significantly on the mound, with Rea posting a WPA of plus-19.0 percent and Milner adding plus-15.6 percent to support a Brewers pitching staff that held the Mets to just three hits on the night.