MLB Recap · June 25, 2023

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

BOS1
Final
CWS4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS001000000150
CWS00021100-470

The Story

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Boston Red Sox 4-1 on June 25, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win rising from 46% before the first pitch to 100% by game's end. The White Sox offense broke a scoreless tie in the fourth inning and never looked back, while Boston managed just one run across nine innings against a Chicago pitching staff that kept the visitors largely in check.

Luis Robert Jr. was the central figure of the night, accounting for the two most impactful plays of the game. His fourth-inning home run off Kutter Crawford added 20.7 percentage points to Chicago's win probability, representing the single largest swing of the contest and effectively turning a close game into a Chicago-controlled affair. He added another solo shot off Crawford in the sixth inning worth 8.0 percentage points, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-29.1 and a RE24 of plus-2.8, by far the most dominant individual performance on either side. Andrew Benintendi contributed a double off Crawford in the fifth that added 10.5 percentage points to the White Sox win probability, finishing with a WPA of plus-14.4, while Adam Duvall's third-inning double off Tanner Banks added 11.0 percentage points from the Boston side before Chicago's offense took over.

On the mound, Jesse Scholtens led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-23.5, anchoring a Chicago staff that received additional contributions from Aaron Bummer at plus-7.8 and Keynan Middleton at plus-2.4. Crawford absorbed the bulk of the damage for Boston, surrendering both Robert homers and Benintendi's key double. A fourth-inning double play grounded into by Zach Remillard cost the White Sox 5.9 percentage points and briefly stalled momentum, but it proved inconsequential as Chicago's three-run fourth and fifth combined with Robert's two-homer night made the model's lean toward a comfortable White Sox victory fully realized.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalCWS win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 46.4% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Robert Jr. Home Run
Bot 4th · off Kutter Crawford
+20.7%
Adam Duvall Double
Top 3rd · off Tanner Banks
+11.0%
Bot 5th · off Kutter Crawford
+10.5%
Luis Robert Jr. Home Run
Bot 6th · off Kutter Crawford
+8.0%
Zach Remillard Grounded Into DP
Bot 3rd · off Kutter Crawford
-5.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Luis Robert Jr.+29.1%+2.8 RE24
Andrew Benintendi+14.4%+0.6 RE24
Adam Duvall+8.5%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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