Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins shut out the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-0 at loanDepot park on June 25, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 65% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Miami's pitching staff controlled the game from start to finish, and the offense provided just enough run support in two key innings to secure the victory.

The Marlins got on the board in the bottom of the third when Jonathan Davis launched a home run off Johan Oviedo — a swing that added 10.6% to Miami's win probability and stood as the game's most impactful offensive play until the eighth inning. That eighth proved to be the decisive sequence. Yuli Gurriel's single off Carmen Mlodzinski delivered a 13.3% win-probability swing, the single largest of the game, extending the Marlins' advantage. Bryan De La Cruz had added momentum earlier in the frame with a double off Ryan Borucki worth 7.4%, though Jorge Soler's fielder's choice out partially blunted the rally at minus 7.3%. On Pittsburgh's side, Jason Delay's strikeout against Andrew Nardi to open the top of the eighth represented the Pirates' most damaging moment at minus 5.2%, as it extinguished any realistic threat before it started.

Among individual performers, Johan Oviedo led all pitchers with a plus-26.8% WPA, followed closely by Eury Pérez at plus-22.2% and Nardi at plus-10.8%, a trio that combined to suffocate a Pittsburgh offense that managed just five hits and crossed the plate zero times. At the plate, Gurriel finished as the top batter at plus-9.3% WPA, while Davis's plus-7.6% and De La Cruz's plus-6.5% reflected the Marlins' balanced if modest offensive contribution across the lineup.