New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 7-6 on June 25, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park in a game that remained competitive deep into the late innings before Philadelphia pulled away decisively. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with the Phillies as 60% favorites and ultimately closed at 100% as Philadelphia secured the win, finishing with seven runs on seven hits and no errors while the Mets managed six runs on eleven hits but were undone by two costly errors.

The game's decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the eighth inning, where Philadelphia engineered a four-run rally that effectively ended the contest. The three biggest win-probability swings of the night all came in that frame. A Brandon Marsh walk off Jeff Brigham shifted win probability by 23.6 percentage points, followed by a Bryson Stott walk off Josh Walker that added another 21.4 points, and a Kyle Schwarber hit by pitch off Brigham contributing 15.5 points. Collectively, those three plate appearances, none of which produced a hit, swung the game by more than 60 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor. Earlier, a Nick Castellanos walk off Dominic Leone in the fifth had added 12.3 points to the Phillies' ledger, keeping New York from building separation. On the Mets' side, Pete Alonso's single off Zack Wheeler in the third added 14.2 points, part of a two-run inning that represented New York's best opportunity to seize control.

Pete Alonso led all batters with a WPA of plus-34.0 and an RE24 of plus-2.3, while Trea Turner posted plus-21.1 WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-2.6, giving the Phillies their most productive offensive contributors by run-expectancy impact. Brandon Marsh added plus-14.9 WPA on the strength of his pivotal eighth-inning walk. On the pitching side, Craig Kimbrel led Philadelphia's relievers with plus-15.2 WPA, followed by Grant Hartwig at plus-13.8, as the Phillies' bullpen ultimately preserved the one-run victory.