Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Seattle Mariners 3-2 on June 25, 2023, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, handing Seattle a tight road loss despite the Mariners grabbing an early lead. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Baltimore at 67% and closed at 100% as the Orioles' offense and bullpen did exactly what was needed to protect a one-run advantage through the final innings.

Seattle struck first in the top of the second when Cal Raleigh hit a home run off Kyle Bradish, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 8.8 points in the Mariners' favor. Baltimore answered decisively in the bottom of the third when Anthony Santander hit a home run off George Kirby, a plus 18.8 point swing that was the single largest win-probability play of the game and effectively turned the tide back toward the Orioles for good. The Orioles added another run in the fifth on an Anthony Bemboom single off Kirby, a plus 9.8 point swing that pushed Baltimore's margin to 3-2, which is where the game would remain. Worth noting on the other side, Adam Frazier's grounded into double play in the bottom of the second was a minus 13.3 point swing against Baltimore's own chances, briefly keeping Seattle's early momentum alive before Santander erased it.

Santander finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 14.8 with a plus 1.1 RE24, while Jorge Mateo contributed plus 7.0 WPA and Mike Ford added plus 6.2 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.2. On the pitching side, closer Félix Bautista led all pitchers at plus 15.2 WPA, preserving the win in the late innings, while Kyle Bradish posted plus 13.3 WPA and Danny Coulombe added plus 10.8. Kirby absorbed the loss, allowing all three Baltimore runs across three separate impactful plate appearances.