Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 12 | 2 |
The Story
St. Louis came away with a 7-5 victory over Chicago at London Stadium on June 25, 2023, a game that swung decisively in the Cardinals' favor early and never truly came back into contention. The DiamondIQ model entered with pre-game home win probability at 47 percent, but by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Cardinals controlled proceedings after the opening half-inning. Chicago drew first blood in a big way, scoring four runs in the top of the first, but St. Louis answered with a sustained barrage that produced three runs in the second, one in the third, two in the fourth, and one in the fifth, building a lead the Cubs could not overcome. The Cardinals finished with 12 hits to Chicago's seven, and each team committed two errors.
The game's pivotal moments were defined by Marcus Stroman's struggles against the middle of the St. Louis order. Brendan Donovan's single in the bottom of the second and Paul Goldschmidt's single in the bottom of the fourth each added 12.0 percent to St. Louis's win probability, while Jordan Walker's single in the third contributed another 6.8 percent. Those three hits off Stroman formed the backbone of the Cardinals' comeback and eventual cushion. On the other side, Lars Nootbaar grounded into a double play in the first inning that cost Chicago 8.7 percent in win probability, blunting what had been a strong start for the Cubs.
Donovan led all position players with a WPA of plus-15.9 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Walker contributed a plus-10.0 WPA to anchor an effective St. Louis lineup. Christopher Morel posted a plus-14.7 WPA for Chicago, representing the Cubs' most impactful offensive presence on the day. Out of the bullpen, Jake Woodford was the Cardinals' most valuable arm, adding plus-13.9 WPA, with Génesis Cabrera and Giovanny Gallegos providing additional support at plus-7.7 and plus-5.0 respectively. The DiamondIQ model favors the Cardinals' performance as the clearest reflection of the game's decisive moments.