Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox edged the Boston Red Sox 5-4 at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 24, 2023, in a game that was not decided until the final at-bat. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 45 percent home win probability for Chicago and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how dramatically the game's decisive moment shifted the outcome. Through eight innings the two clubs traded runs in a tightly contested affair, with each team scoring in the second, sixth, and ninth innings to set up a one-run game heading into the bottom of the ninth.

The critical sequence began in the top of the ninth when Justin Turner delivered a single off Kendall Graveman that swung win probability by plus 35.6 percent, pulling Boston within striking distance and momentarily tilting the game back toward the Red Sox. Adam Duvall's strikeout against Graveman immediately countered that momentum, costing Boston 16.8 percent in win probability and keeping the door open for Chicago. Earlier, Triston Casas had given Boston life with a sixth-inning home run off Lance Lynn that swung the model's estimate by plus 26.5 percent, while Luis Robert Jr. answered in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Josh Winckowski that added 14.8 percent for the White Sox.

Elvis Andrus authored the game's defining moment, lining a walk-off single off Kenley Jansen in the bottom of the ninth that carried the largest single-play swing of the night at plus 42.9 percent win probability. Andrus finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 36.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.4. Turner led Boston's contributors at plus 27.8 percent WPA, while Casas posted the most productive offensive line among Red Sox batters with a RE24 of plus 2.2. Among pitchers, Joe Kelly was Chicago's most valuable arm at plus 16.2 percent WPA, with Gregory Santos and James Paxton also contributing positively to the White Sox bullpen effort.