New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The New York Mets defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park on June 24, 2023, overcoming a pre-game environment where the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Philadelphia a 59 percent chance of winning at first pitch. The Mets built their lead incrementally, scoring in the first and third innings before a decisive two-run sixth sealed the outcome. Nick Castellanos was the single most damaging bat in the game for either side, contributing a net swing of 22.6 percent in win probability, though his efforts ultimately came on the losing end. His fourth-inning home run off Max Scherzer was the most impactful positive play for Philadelphia, shifting win probability 11.4 percent in the Phillies' favor, and his eighth-inning walk against Adam Ottavino added another 8.9 percent. Despite those moments, New York's pitching staff absorbed the pressure.
The game's single largest swing came in the bottom of the eighth, when Bryson Stott grounded into a double play off David Robertson, collapsing Philadelphia's win probability by 23.3 percent at a moment when the Phillies still had a foothold. That sequence effectively extinguished any realistic path to a comeback. Earlier, Trea Turner's fifth-inning single off Scherzer had provided Philadelphia a 12.1 percent boost, and Francisco Lindor's sixth-inning single off Yunior Marte countered with a 9.5 percent shift back toward New York. The Mets finished with nine hits and committed no errors.
On the pitching side, David Robertson led all pitchers with a 16.0 percent WPA contribution, while Max Scherzer posted a 15.5 percent figure despite surrendering the Castellanos home run. Brooks Raley added 4.7 percent in relief. For the Phillies' offense, Josh Harrison generated 11.5 percent in WPA and Luis Guillorme contributed 8.6 percent with a cleaner 1.0 RE24 mark, but Philadelphia's lineup could not capitalize in the moments that mattered most, leaving the DiamondIQ model's final estimate for a home win at zero percent.