Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-4 in ten innings on June 24, 2023, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Baltimore at 66% and closed at 100% following a walk-off home run in the bottom of the tenth that settled a back-and-forth contest. Baltimore built leads in the middle innings before Seattle briefly threatened to steal the game, only for the Orioles to respond decisively in extras.

The two most consequential plays of the night came in consecutive half-innings late in the game. In the top of the ninth, Mike Ford launched a home run off Félix Bautista, a swing that shifted win probability by 36.3 percentage points and brought Seattle within reach. The Mariners had entered the bottom of the sixth in a difficult position, though Aaron Hicks had provided some relief with a home run off Gabe Speier that moved the needle 15.2 points in Baltimore's favor. Seattle's momentum from Ford's blast was short-lived. In the bottom of the tenth, Ryan McKenna crushed a home run off Justin Topa, a walk-off shot that carried a 41.4-point win-probability swing and ended the game immediately. Ty France's strikeout to open the tenth, which swung 14.3 points toward Baltimore, had set a favorable stage for McKenna's decisive blow, while a fielders choice out by Teoscar Hernández in the eighth had cost Seattle 16.6 points of win probability at a critical juncture.

McKenna finished as the night's most impactful offensive player with a combined WPA of plus-41.4% and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Ford's effort on behalf of Seattle registered plus-40.0% WPA despite being on the losing side. Anthony Santander contributed plus-19.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.7 for Baltimore. On the pitching side, Danny Coulombe led Baltimore's relievers with plus-10.8% WPA, with Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash each contributing in positive territory as well.