Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs dismantled the St. Louis Cardinals 9-1 at London Stadium on June 24, 2023, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win at exactly zero percent by the final out. St. Louis entered with a 45 percent pre-game win probability as the home side, but the Cubs seized control early and never relinquished it, piling up 14 hits against a Cardinals staff that had no answer for Chicago's lineup through the middle innings.
Ian Happ was the central force in the Cubs' offensive demolition, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability tracking captured just how thoroughly he altered the game. His home run off Adam Wainwright in the second inning added 4.9 percent to Chicago's win probability, and he followed that with another home run off Wainwright in the third that swung the needle an additional 9.2 percent — the single largest play of the game by that measure. Happ finished with a cumulative WPA of plus-13.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.9. Christopher Morel's single in the third inning, also against Wainwright, added 6.8 percent to Chicago's win probability and gave him a final WPA of plus-7.6 and RE24 of plus-1.1, the best run-environment figure among position players. Nick Madrigal contributed a key single in the second that moved the needle 4.5 percent, closing the night at plus-6.3 WPA.
On the mound, Justin Steele was equally dominant, posting a WPA of plus-12.6 percent as he limited St. Louis to one run in the Cardinals' lone scoring inning, the sixth. The Cardinals' most consequential missed opportunity came in the second, when Lars Nootbaar grounded out against Steele in a situation that cost St. Louis 5.6 percent in win probability, a sequence that effectively extinguished any early hope of a Cardinals rally. Julian Merryweather and Jake Woodford handled the remainder of the relief work without meaningful impact on the probability line. The Cubs' nine runs came in four separate innings, with two-run bursts in the second, third, fourth, and ninth underlining the sustained nature of their offensive output.